Nifty’s 0.88% fall leaves crude, yields and RBI decision in focus

The previous session’s decline came amid a weaker rupee, elevated oil prices, high US Treasury yields and continued foreign selling, according to market reports. Those pressures remain relevant at the open, although gains in US and Asian equities after softer US jobs data offer a counterweight.

The Reserve Bank of India’s policy meeting begins today, with its decision due on October 7. Economists polled by ET expect a possible rate increase, citing oil-related inflation risks and patchy monsoon conditions; that is a forecast, not a decision by the RBI.

IT shares provided support in the previous session. Infosys and other large IT names advanced after Accenture reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and gave a stronger FY27 revenue outlook. Infosys’ US-listed ADR was up nearly 8% in pre-market trading on October 1, according to the Economic Times; the global IT read-through helped lift sentiment toward Indian technology services.

Autos were among the session’s weakest areas, with Bajaj Auto, Maruti Suzuki and M&M among the Nifty’s notable decliners. September sales data presented a mixed picture for Bajaj Auto: total sales grew year-on-year, but domestic sales fell while exports rose. Maruti reported higher total and domestic passenger-vehicle sales, but reports attributed its share-price weakness to selling across the auto sector rather than to that sales release alone.

Market reports linked the broader sell-off to crude prices, the rupee and rising global yields, which heightened concerns about imported inflation and financing conditions. The market’s recovery from its intraday low was led by IT buying, but it did not reverse the overall decline.

Provisional NSE cash-market data cited by Financial Express showed foreign investors sold Rs 9,484 crore of equities on October 1, while domestic institutions bought Rs 10,042 crore. The opposing flows show domestic demand absorbing some of the foreign supply, but the continued foreign selling remains a pressure point for sentiment.

The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee starts its meeting today and is due to announce its decision on October 7. The repo rate stands at 5.25%. An ET poll of economists pointed to a possible 25-basis-point increase, with oil-driven inflation and weak farm output cited as risks. Banks, autos and other rate-sensitive businesses will be in focus as the market weighs that expectation against the still-pending decision.

Wall Street closed higher on Friday, with technology shares leading the advance after the September US payroll increase came in below economists’ expectations. The weaker jobs report reduced expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike. Asian equities were higher early today on the same shift in rate expectations.

The dollar edged lower and US Treasury yields eased modestly early on Monday after rising on Friday. Oil remained elevated: reports cited geopolitical concerns after attacks in Saudi Arabia, while early trading saw Brent retreat from levels above $103 a barrel. For India, sustained high crude remains a risk to the import bill and inflation outlook; the softer dollar and yields offer some relief but do not remove that exposure.

September gross GST collections were reported at Rs 2,03,521 crore, up 14.7% year-on-year. This is a recent revenue indicator; the available material does not establish that CPI, IIP or trade data were released for the October 5 session.

Final September readings for the HSBC Services and Composite PMIs are scheduled for October 6. The GST Council is also due to meet on October 7, with reports pointing to discussion of GST enforcement and prosecution reforms. Those are upcoming events, not decisions already taken.

The RBI approved Anup Bagchi’s appointment as HDFC Bank’s managing director and chief executive for a three-year term beginning October 27. The appointment resolves a leadership transition at a major private lender; the announcement does not include a new operating outlook.

Bajaj Finance’s board approved plans to raise up to Rs 11,700 crore through a qualified institutional placement and up to Rs 5,800 crore through warrants to promoter Bajaj Finserv. The proposed fundraising could add to the company’s capital base, subject to the stated issuance processes.

Avenue Supermarts reported standalone second-quarter revenue of Rs 19,206 crore, up 18.4% year-on-year from Rs 16,219 crore. The available report provides the year-ago comparison but no analyst consensus, so the result cannot be described as a beat or miss.

The week’s immediate domestic focus is the RBI’s October 7 decision, alongside the September PMI releases due a day earlier. Investors will also track whether crude and global bond yields sustain their recent pressure and whether foreign selling continues.

In the primary market, two IPOs are due to close today and Paramount Syntex’s SME issue remains open until October 6. The listed-company calendar also includes quarterly results from four smaller companies today; no verified block or bulk deal information was available in the material reviewed.