Nifty extends losing streak to a seventh week as oil and yields weigh

Indian equities ended the week lower for a seventh consecutive week, despite a partial recovery on Friday. Reuters attributed the sustained pressure chiefly to elevated oil prices, which lifted bond yields and revived inflation concerns, alongside proposed insurance-distribution curbs. Foreign institutional investors were net sellers of Rs 11,490 crore during the week, while domestic institutions bought a net Rs 16,398 crore, according to exchange data reported by CNBC-TV18.

The week’s sharpest pressure came on Thursday. Reuters reported that financial shares led the decline after IRDAI proposed changes to insurance commissions; high crude and rising US Treasury yields added to the risk-off mood. On Friday, Reuters cited ICICI Securities’ Pankaj Pandey, who said investors were factoring in the possibility of further central-bank rate rises if yields stayed elevated. The Friday recovery was therefore a retracement after a heavy sell-off, not evidence that those concerns had been resolved.

The stock-level moves reflected that split. On Friday, Axis Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra and Asian Paints were among the leading gainers, while Reuters reported Coal India was the week’s strongest Nifty constituent, with the market report linking its performance to an upbeat demand and earnings outlook. On Thursday, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Life, Bajaj Finserv and Axis Bank were among the names under pressure as financials sold off. Reuters reported that information technology shares also weakened over the week amid concern about higher US rates and artificial-intelligence-related risks.

The sector readings were not uniform in their drivers. The NBFC & Insurance aggregate finished higher, but that masks the late-week reaction to IRDAI’s consultation: Reuters reported a sharp fall in PB Fintech and pressure on lenders with meaningful insurance-distribution income. The available reporting does not establish a single cause for the aggregate’s net gain. For Cement & Materials, the government’s August core-sector release reported cement output growth, providing a supportive industry signal, though that alone does not establish why the shares rose. Auto shares found support in Friday’s recovery, with M&M among the gainers; reports described buying in cyclical and consumer-facing stocks after Thursday’s sell-off.

Higher crude reinforced concerns about costs and inflation, while the oil-and-energy, metals and telecom-and-internet readings ended weaker. Reuters linked the broad market’s pressure to crude and yields, and its report also identified US-rate and AI concerns for IT stocks. The available reports do not identify a specific company or catalyst that explains the full weekly move in each of the oil-and-energy, metals or telecom-and-internet groups.

IRDAI’s September 23 consultation paper, “Recalibrating Economics of Insurance Distribution”, proposed a phased reduction in expense-of-management limits and a return to differentiated commission limits based on product, distribution channel and other factors. Reuters reported that the proposals would also bar banks and non-bank lenders from making insurance compulsory with loans, and spread life-policy commissions over the policy term rather than concentrating them upfront. These are proposals, not final rules; the regulator invited comments through October 25. Market participants’ concern was that lower or deferred payouts could affect earnings at insurers, distributors and lenders that earn insurance fees.

The RBI issued revised Basel III market-risk capital directions for commercial banks during the week, with adoption required from April 1, 2027, according to the Economic Times. Separately, the RBI sold Rs 25,000 crore of government securities through an open-market operation on September 21, reported ANI, as it continued to absorb surplus banking liquidity. The available material does not identify a separate SEBI rule change or a new finance-ministry measure with a direct market impact during the week.

Global cues were uneven. Reuters reported that Asian shares held up on Friday even as the US Treasury sell-off pushed longer-dated yields to multi-year highs; US shares had faced pressure earlier in the week as yields rose. Renewed supply concerns after attacks involving Saudi Arabia helped lift oil, while reports of possible US-Iran diplomacy contributed to its Friday pullback. Reuters said markets were weighing those competing signals. For India, the combination of expensive imported energy and elevated global yields kept inflation, borrowing costs and equity valuations in focus.

Foreign investors’ net selling was more than offset by domestic institutional purchases over the week, based on exchange data reported by CNBC-TV18. That flow divergence helped cushion the market but did not prevent the seventh consecutive weekly decline. The rupee recovered slightly on Friday, while the domestic 10-year government-bond yield ended the week higher; together, these moves left markets sensitive to further changes in oil, foreign flows and global rates.

The August core-sector index grew 4.8% year-on-year, against 5.0% in July, according to provisional government data released on September 21. Cement output rose 12.5% year-on-year and electricity output 11.6%; contractions in coal, crude oil, natural gas and fertiliser output offset part of that strength. September’s flash HSBC Composite PMI rose to 56.5 from 54.3 in August, while the manufacturing reading increased to 55.7 from 52.8, Reuters reported. The survey pointed to firmer private-sector activity, although weaker export momentum and more subdued hiring tempered the positive picture.

The available release calendar and reporting identify no new CPI, IIP, GST or trade print during September 21–25. The PMI and core-sector figures were the main domestic activity updates for the week; the core-sector release was provisional.

Company-specific news included contract wins and forward targets rather than a major set of earnings releases with a reported consensus comparison. Skipper announced orders worth Rs 797 crore for power transmission and distribution projects, including an Australian export order and a domestic transmission-line project. Sugs Lloyd disclosed a Rs 213.48 crore Punjab power-distribution order, while Waaree Energies reported a 2 GW solar-module supply order. The available reports do not provide market expectations against which to assess these awards.

Solex Energy set a revenue target of Rs 4,500 crore by FY28 and reported order visibility of Rs 3,400 crore. These are management targets and visibility, not realised revenue; a comparable consensus estimate was not available. NSE’s debut was the week’s most prominent primary-market event: Reuters reported an issue size of Rs 22,560 crore, subscription of 5.7 times and a first-day close above the issue price. Because the offer was entirely an offer for sale, NSE did not raise new capital through the listing.

The immediate focus is whether crude prices and global bond yields ease enough to reduce pressure on inflation expectations and equity valuations. July industrial-production data were scheduled for release on September 28, according to the published calendar. IRDAI’s distribution proposals remain open for consultation, so further market reaction may depend on the final rules and the regulator’s response to stakeholder comments.