Banks vs NBFCs: Which stocks could benefit as RBI set to hike rates for the first time in 3 years?
RBI moved higher in a quarterly results development.
6 Oct 2026 · Economic Times Markets, ET Stocks
The RBI’s expected first rate hike in three years could have a mixed impact on banks and NBFCs. While higher funding costs may pressure NBFC margins, lenders with floating-rate assets and strong liquidity could benefit. Brokerages favour HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finance and Tata Capital.
The analysis
Against that, the stock is -0.9% on the day at ₹705.30, and has returned -15.3% over three months. It sits 30% below its 52-week high, which means a good deal of bad news was already in the price. The banks sector has moved -4.0% over the same period, so HDFC Bank is running 11.3 points behind its peers.
With HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank all implicated, this reads as a Banks-level move rather than a company-specific one, which is the more durable kind of signal.
Why it matters
- Earnings versus expectations is what actually re-rates a stock; the surprise matters more than the absolute number.
- Rate decisions ripple straight into banks, NBFCs and every rate-sensitive sector — from real estate to autos.
- With RBI involved, this carries a regulatory dimension that can outlast the immediate market reaction.
Market context
- It touches several names at once (HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK, KOTAKBANK, BAJFINANCE), which points to a sector-level rather than company-specific driver.
- Sector exposure: Banks, Financial Services.
In this story
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