India Equities Could See Flows Return If Middle East Risks Ease, Says ETO Markets' Jonathan Barratt
Lower geopolitical risk may improve foreign appetite for Indian equities by easing concerns around crude oil, inflation, the rupee and corporate input costs.
6 Oct 2026 · NDTV Profit
Speaking to NDTV Profit, Barratt said the market is becoming "quite complacent" about the geopolitical situation, even as oil flows through the Middle East remain at pre-war levels. He cautioned that the conflict is not yet fully resolved and any fresh development could push crude prices higher.
The analysis
ETO Markets' Jonathan Barratt told NDTV Profit that foreign flows could return to Indian equities if tensions in the Middle East subside. He said investors appeared increasingly relaxed about geopolitical risk, although the conflict had not been conclusively settled. Oil shipments through the region were still running at pre war levels, limiting the immediate market impact, but Barratt cautioned that renewed disruption could lift crude prices. No estimate was provided for potential equity inflows, the timing of any return, or the possible increase in oil prices if hostilities intensify.
The argument matters because India depends heavily on imported crude, making domestic assets sensitive to oil prices and Middle East supply risks. Softer geopolitical risk could reduce pressure on the rupee, inflation expectations and import costs, potentially improving foreign investor appetite. Airlines, paints, chemicals and oil marketing businesses may benefit from contained crude prices, while upstream energy producers tend to gain when oil rises. Evidence of sustained regional oil flows, stable crude prices and improving foreign portfolio participation would support Barratt's reading. Fresh supply disruption, higher crude prices or continued foreign selling would weaken it.
Market context
- This is a market-wide development — its reach goes beyond any single stock.