What will happen to economy if India-US FTA doesn't happen? RBI Governor reveals
RBI is in focus in a monetary policy development.
8 Oct 2026 · ET Stocks, Economic Times Markets
"The impact depends on to what extent tariffs are going to be applied. So, it's premature to answer. But obviously it will have some negative impact," Malhotra said during the post-monetary policy press conference in response to a query on the impact on the economy if the trade deal with the US fails to materialise.
The analysis
This is a Rate / liquidity policy event. Rate direction moves bank margins and the discount rate applied to every long-duration asset. The commentary usually matters more than the decision, which is often already priced.
Because the driver here is macro rather than company-specific, the read-through is to index-level positioning rather than to any single name — correlations tend to rise when the whole market faces the same signal.
Why it matters
- Rate decisions ripple straight into banks, NBFCs and every rate-sensitive sector — from real estate to autos.
- With RBI involved, this carries a regulatory dimension that can outlast the immediate market reaction.
Market context
- This is a market-wide development — its reach goes beyond any single stock.
Related coverage
Banks vs NBFCs: Which stocks could benefit as RBI set to hike rates for the first time in 3 years?
Rupee falls 10 paise to 96.45 against US dollar ahead of RBI monetary policy decision
RBI rate hike: ICRA sees one more 25-bps hike, Axis MF expects up to 75 bps more
Loans get costlier: PNB, BOB others hike rates after RBI’s 25-bps repo rate hike
Indian Hotels, NALCO among Ajit Mishra's 3 stock recommendations for today