INDIA MARKET LENS

Research Digest

Key insights and analysis from the world's leading banks and research houses on Indian companies, sectors and markets.

  • Morgan Stanley
  • J.P. Morgan
  • Goldman Sachs
  • Jefferies
  • Nomura
  • CLSA

Week of

23–29 Oct 2026

Published Fri 30 Oct

You are reading the edition for the week of 23–29 Oct 2026. Read the latest week →

Quarterly results reset company views while policy questions remained open

Across Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, Nomura and CLSA, the week’s research spanned banks, autos, consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, telecoms, market infrastructure, metals, digital payments, equity taxation and electric two-wheelers.1–6 Results notes repeatedly separated growth from profitability: Tata Consumer’s 11% underlying volume growth, Kotak’s operating beat, Mankind’s 27% EBITDA margin and TVS Motor’s 13% margin contrasted with softer AU Bank margins, weaker United Spirits premium volumes and Ola Electric’s cash-flow concerns.2–3,7–18

Against earlier published views, the clearest shifts were stronger assessments of Paytm and KEI, a weaker assessment of Ola, a higher Ather target and lower Vodafone Idea and Vedanta Aluminium targets; many results-linked ratings were unchanged.1,3,6,14,19–27 September-quarter results supplied most company evidence, while Jefferies’ equity-tax work remained scenario analysis because no policy decision had been announced.2,4,7–9,17–18,28 TVS Motor’s demerger and possible payment-fee or telecom-tariff changes left important questions dependent on corporate execution or policy action.1,17–19,22–23

What tied the week together

  • Results reset several views

    Quarterly results underpinned stronger assessments of Paytm and KEI, revised Mankind estimates and changed targets for Kotak Mahindra Bank and AU Small Finance Bank.1–2,9–13,19–21

  • Margins moved unevenly

    Tata Consumer, Mankind and TVS Motor reported supportive margin evidence, while AU Bank and United Spirits paired weaker operating measures with growth or gross-margin strengths.7–8,10–13,15–18

  • Electric vehicles diverged

    Goldman Sachs cited weaker cash-flow visibility and market-share pressure at Ola Electric, whereas Nomura highlighted Ather Energy’s first quarterly profit, positive EBITDA and stronger bookings.3,14,24–25

  • Tax evidence remained limited

    Jefferies’ equity-tax cases were hypothetical, with no policy decision announced and fiscal cost identified as a constraint on any reduction.4,28

  • TVS emphasis differed

    Nomura focused on premium motorcycles, electric vehicles and exports, while CLSA emphasised margin resilience and lower recurring funding needs after the proposed demerger.17–18

  • Policy questions stayed open

    UPI merchant fees, equity taxation and telecom tariffs remained unresolved inputs to the Paytm, market-flow and Vodafone Idea assessments.1,4,19,22–23,28

What each institution published

The lead note from each house. All of their notes follow below.

Morgan Stanley3 notesPaytmPaytm execution prompted a sharper earnings viewMorgan Stanley shifted its Paytm view after stronger payments and financial-services execution, with possible UPI merchant-fee changes supporting further earnings revisions.1,19Overweight, was Equal-weightTarget ₹1,95028 OctRead all notesJ.P. Morgan4 notesKotak Mahindra BankKotak's operating beat outweighed near-term deposit dragJ.P. Morgan said Kotak Mahindra Bank's broad operating beat, improving deposit mix and liquidity deployment could offset the near-term margin drag from foreign-currency deposits.2,9OverweightTarget ₹49226 OctRead all notesGoldman Sachs2 notesOla ElectricOla's cash-flow path became less clearGoldman Sachs said Ola Electric's path to sustainable free cash flow had become less clear because of operating losses, interest costs and investment needs.3,14Sell, was NeutralTarget ₹2323 OctRead all notesJefferies3 notesEquity taxationEquity-tax options weighed against fiscal costJefferies examined three equity-tax options, saying lower capital-gains taxation could improve foreign flows, while lost revenue could constrain policy choices.4,2828 OctRead all notesNomura3 notesJio PlatformsJio coverage focuses on monetisation and cash generationNomura initiated Jio Platforms coverage, focusing on its shift from subscriber expansion towards tariffs, broadband monetisation and stronger cash generation.5,33BuyTarget ₹1,34028 OctRead all notesCLSA4 notesVedanta AluminiumVedanta outlook shifts after costs beat estimatesCLSA linked Vedanta Aluminium's earnings run-rate to smelter ramp-up and cost savings, while reducing its target after initiating coverage earlier that week.6,26–27OutperformTarget ₹52529 OctRead all notes

Every note, in detail

What each note found, what changed from the house's earlier view, and why it matters.

Morgan Stanley3 notes this week

Paytm

Paytm execution prompted a sharper earnings view

Report of 28 Oct

Rating
Overweightwas Equal-weight
Target
₹1,950was ₹1,450
  • Payments and financial-services execution supported a stronger growth assessment.1,19
  • Revenue was projected to grow about 30% annually between FY26 and FY29.1,19

Tata Consumer

India branded growth strengthened Tata Consumer's quarter

Report of 27 Oct

Rating
Overweight
Target
₹1,202
  • India branded revenue grew 17%, supported by 11% underlying volume growth.7–8
  • Revenue, EBITDA and adjusted profit rose 14%, 17% and 18%, respectively.7–8

Hyundai Motor India

Hyundai recovery rests on volumes, margins and market share

Report of 29 Oct

Rating
Overweight
Target
₹2,438
  • Morgan Stanley expected operating performance to recover during the second half of FY27.29–30
  • The assessment centred on volumes, margins and market-share improvement.29–30

J.P. Morgan4 notes this week

Kotak Mahindra Bank

Kotak's operating beat outweighed near-term deposit drag

Report of 26 Oct

Rating
Overweight
Target
₹492was ₹468
  • The September quarter beat expectations across key operating measures.2,9
  • Foreign-currency deposits weighed on margins, while asset quality remained benign.2,9

AU Small Finance Bank

AU Bank growth held despite softer margins

Report of 26 Oct

Rating
Overweight
Target
₹1,165was ₹1,230
  • Balance-sheet growth accelerated while credit costs performed better than management guidance.10–11
  • Asset-quality pressure was viewed as largely seasonal, with monsoon risks remaining.10–11

KEI Industries

KEI growth outlook improved after margin expectations reset

Report of 27 Oct

Rating
Overweightwas Neutral
Target
₹4,650was ₹5,650
  • J.P. Morgan identified improving volume growth and a product mix supporting margins.20–21
  • Lower copper prices remained a key business risk.20–21

Mankind Pharma

Mankind's prescription and export businesses beat expectations

Report of 27 Oct

Rating
Neutral
Target
₹2,700
  • Revenue exceeded estimates by 3%, led by Indian prescription medicines and exports.12–13
  • The 27% EBITDA margin was about 100 basis points above expectations.12–13

Goldman Sachs2 notes this week

Ola Electric

Ola's cash-flow path became less clear

Report of 23 Oct

Rating
Sellwas Neutral
Target
₹23was ₹39.28
  • Operating losses, interest costs and investment needs weakened the free-cash-flow assessment.3,14
  • Revenue estimates for FY27-FY29 were reduced by up to 10%.3,14

United Spirits

United Spirits margins offset weaker premium volumes

Report of 29 Oct

Rating
Buy
Target
₹1,575
  • Revenue growth missed expectations, while gross margins were stronger than expected.15–16
  • Premium-and-above volumes weakened during the September quarter.15–16

Jefferies3 notes this week

Equity taxation

Equity-tax options weighed against fiscal cost

Report of 28 Oct

  • A tax reduction could improve foreign investor sentiment and support the rupee, Jefferies said.4,28
  • Financials, energy and consumer technology could benefit most if foreign flows recover.4,28
  • Equity LTCG and securities transaction taxes comprised 5% of FY25 gross tax revenue.4,28

National Stock Exchange

NSE coverage begins with diversified growth case

Report of 29 Oct

Rating
Buy
Target
₹2,085
  • Jefferies expects operating revenue to grow 15% annually between FY27 and FY29.31–32
  • Cash trading, technology services and stabilising equity-options share underpin the revenue view.31–32

Vodafone Idea

Vodafone Idea target reduced after valuation reset

Report of 27 Oct

Rating
Buy
Target
₹16was ₹20
  • Network expansion and tariff increases support Jefferies' FY26-FY29 revenue and EBITDA growth assumptions.22–23
  • The firm modelled fair values ranging from ₹9 to ₹29 under different tariff scenarios.22–23

Nomura3 notes this week

Jio Platforms

Jio coverage focuses on monetisation and cash generation

Report of 28 Oct

Rating
Buy
Target
₹1,340
  • Nomura described Jio as India's leader in wireless subscribers, data traffic and home broadband.5,33
  • It expects EBITDA to grow 13.5% annually between FY26 and FY29.5,33
  • Lower capital expenditure and broadband growth could strengthen cash generation.5,33

Ather Energy

Ather target raised after margin and booking gains

Report of 27 Oct

Rating
Buy
Target
₹2,070was ₹1,926
  • Average selling prices and margins exceeded Nomura's expectations in the September quarter.24–25
  • Stronger bookings and the Konarc platform improved growth visibility.24–25

TVS Motor

TVS view retained as finance demerger advances

Report of 29 Oct

Rating
Buy
Target
₹4,605
  • Nomura highlighted growth from premium motorcycles, electric vehicles and exports.17–18
  • Second-quarter average selling prices exceeded consensus expectations.17–18

CLSA4 notes this week

Vedanta Aluminium

Vedanta outlook shifts after costs beat estimates

Report of 29 Oct

Rating
Outperform
Target
₹525was ₹540
  • Second-quarter results modestly exceeded CLSA's expectations because costs were lower.6,26
  • Smelter ramp-up and savings projects support a $5 billion FY27 exit EBITDA run-rate assessment.6,26
  • A proposed 30-lakh-tonne smelter is targeted for completion by end-FY28.6,26

Vedanta Aluminium

Vedanta coverage begins on aluminium cycle

Report of 23 Oct

Rating
Outperform
Target
₹540
  • CLSA began coverage after Vedanta Aluminium's stock-market debut.27
  • The initial view reflected aluminium prices and operational improvements.27

TVS Motor

TVS view retained as margins withstand costs

Report of 29 Oct

Rating
Outperform
Target
₹4,896
  • The EBITDA margin increased sequentially to 13% despite higher commodity costs.17–18
  • CLSA highlighted the planned FY28 separation of TVS Motor's finance operations.17–18

Maruti Suzuki

Maruti view retained after sequential margin improvement

Report of 28 Oct

Rating
Outperform
Target
₹14,537
  • The second-quarter EBITDA margin rose 71 basis points sequentially to 8.9%.34–35
  • Cost reductions, price increases and retail-wholesale timing supported margins.34–35

Sources

Every numbered point above links here: the publisher, the article and its date.

  1. 1The Economic Times: Morgan Stanley turns bullish on Paytm, raises target 35 pc to Rs 1,950 on earnings upside, 28 Oct 2026
  2. 2Moneycontrol: Kotak Mahindra Bank stock jumps 2% after Q2 results; JPMorgan raises target price, 26 Oct 2026
  3. 3Moneycontrol: Ola Electric shares plunge after Goldman Sachs downgrade, 23 Oct 2026
  4. 4Business Standard: Equity LTCG tax cut could boost foreign inflows, support rupee: Jefferies, 29 Oct 2026
  5. 5The Economic Times: Jio Platforms gets first Buy call! Nomura says ‘disruptor now the leader’, 28 Oct 2026
  6. 6CNBC-TV18: Here's why CLSA, Motilal Oswal see up to 46% upside in Vedanta Aluminium, 29 Oct 2026
  7. 7Moneycontrol: Tata Consumer stock surges over 6%, leads Nifty gainers after Q2 profit rises 18%, 27 Oct 2026
  8. 8CNBC-TV18: Tata Consumer bullish analysts expect share price to rise up to 42% after Q2 results, 27 Oct 2026
  9. 9NDTV Profit: Kotak Mahindra Bank Q2 Review: Brokerages Stay Bullish After Strong Earnings, 26 Oct 2026
  10. 10Moneycontrol: AU Small Finance Bank shares fall over 7% amid margin concerns in Q2, 26 Oct 2026
  11. 11NDTV Profit: AU Small Finance Bank Q2 Review: Jefferies, JPMorgan Cut Target Prices, 26 Oct 2026
  12. 12Moneycontrol: Mankind Pharma stock surges 9% after strong Q2 results, 27 Oct 2026
  13. 13CNBC-TV18: Mankind Pharma jumps 8% on Q2 earnings beat, 27 Oct 2026
  14. 14NDTV Profit: Ola Electric Shares Downgraded To Sell, Target Price Cut, 23 Oct 2026
  15. 15NDTV Profit: United Spirits Q2 Review: Premium Sales Rise 6.3%, But Profit Falls, 29 Oct 2026
  16. 16The Economic Times: Goldman Sachs maintains its view on United Spirits after Q2 results, 29 Oct 2026
  17. 17CNBC-TV18: TVS Motor shares trade off 4% from day's high after Q2 results, financial services demerger, 29 Oct 2026
  18. 18Moneycontrol: TVS Motor shares in focus after Q2 profit jumps 50%; CLSA, Nomura see up to 15% upside, 29 Oct 2026
  19. 19Business Standard: Morgan Stanley turns bullish on Paytm, ups target by 35% on earnings upside, 28 Oct 2026
  20. 20Moneycontrol: KEI Industries: JPMorgan upgrades rating but lowers price target, 27 Oct 2026
  21. 21CNBC-TV18: KEI Industries shares upgraded by JPMorgan on two key factors, 27 Oct 2026
  22. 22CNBC-TV18: Vodafone Idea share price can rise 143% from current levels? Jefferies explains a scenario analysis, 27 Oct 2026
  23. 23NDTV Profit: Vodafone Idea Shares Offer Attractive Risk-Reward, Says Jefferies, 27 Oct 2026
  24. 24Moneycontrol: Ather Energy stock jumps another 4% after 14% rally; Nomura, HSBC raise targets, 27 Oct 2026
  25. 25NDTV Profit: Ather Energy Q2 Review: Nomura, HSBC Raise Target Prices After Q2 Surprise, 28 Oct 2026
  26. 26Moneycontrol: Price Action: Vedanta Aluminium down 3% after CLSA retains 'outperform', 29 Oct 2026
  27. 27The Economic Times: Vedanta Aluminium shares rise nearly 2% as CLSA initiates Outperform call, 23 Oct 2026
  28. 28Moneycontrol: Differential treatment for FPIs to across-the-board LTCG tax cut options before govt: Jefferies, 29 Oct 2026
  29. 29Moneycontrol: Hyundai Motor India shares surge 5% after Q2 results, 29 Oct 2026
  30. 30NDTV Profit: Hyundai Motor India Q2 Review: Record Sales, 9.5% Margins, 29 Oct 2026
  31. 31The Economic Times: Jefferies initiates coverage on NSE with ‘Buy’; here’s why it sees fresh growth potential, 29 Oct 2026
  32. 32Business Standard: NSE: Growth levers, easing regulatory pressure underpin Jefferies' buy call, 29 Oct 2026
  33. 33NDTV Profit: Jio Platforms: Nomura Initiates With 'Buy', Sees 20% Upside, 28 Oct 2026
  34. 34CNBC-TV18: Maruti Suzuki Share Price: HSBC sees commodity costs as key trigger, Nomura cites FY28 slowdown risk, 28 Oct 2026
  35. 35Moneycontrol: Maruti Suzuki shares slip marginally after missing estimates in Q2, 28 Oct 2026
Could not be confirmed this week (19)
  • Morgan Stanley: 2026-10-27: Urban Company view after its analyst day was found in one approved outlet.
  • Morgan Stanley: 2026-10-23: Swiggy, Adani Green Energy and SRF calls lacked two approved independent sources.
  • J.P. Morgan: 2026-10-23: GLP-1 demand in India, China and Brazil was reported by Reuters and syndicated elsewhere, without a second independent report.
  • J.P. Morgan: 2026-10-26: Infosys, Coforge and SBI Cards notes were found in one approved outlet each.
  • J.P. Morgan: 2026-10-28: Bajaj Auto upgrade was found in one approved outlet.
  • Goldman Sachs: 2026-10-23: Havells India target revision was found in one approved outlet.
  • Goldman Sachs: 2026-10-26: IDFC First Bank reiterated view was found in one approved outlet.
  • Goldman Sachs: 2026-10-27: Tata Consumer and Urban Company notes lacked two approved independent sources.
  • Goldman Sachs: 2026-10-28: Bajaj Auto and SBI Life notes lacked two approved independent sources.
  • Jefferies: 29 October: FY27 power-demand growth estimate raised to 9% from 7%; no second eligible outlet located.
  • Jefferies: 29 October: October automobile registrations and wholesale-volume estimates; no second eligible outlet located.
  • Jefferies: 23 October: JSW Infrastructure target raised to ₹400 from ₹395; single eligible source.
  • Jefferies: 27 October: Tata Consumer Products target reduced to ₹1,250; single eligible source.
  • Nomura: 29 October: Cholamandalam Finance target reduced to ₹1,700; single eligible source.
  • Nomura: 29 October: Max Financial Services target reduced to ₹2,000; single eligible source.
  • Nomura: 27 October: AU Small Finance Bank target reduced to ₹960; single eligible source.
  • Nomura: 27 October: BPCL target reduced to ₹385; single eligible source.
  • Nomura: 27 October: IndusInd Bank earnings estimates raised and target reduced to ₹1,060; single eligible source.
  • Nomura: 28 October: Paytm target raised to ₹2,300; single eligible source.

Earlier weeks

The last 26 weeks.

Quarterly results reset company views while policy questions remained open | Research Digest, week of 23–29 Oct 2026