INDIA MARKET LENS

Research Digest

Key insights and analysis from the world's leading banks and research houses on Indian companies, sectors and markets.

  • Morgan Stanley
  • J.P. Morgan
  • Goldman Sachs
  • Jefferies
  • Nomura
  • CLSA

Week of

30 Oct – 5 Nov 2026

Published Fri 6 Nov

Indian earnings strength stayed concentrated as margins and capital weakened elsewhere.

Indian earnings were strong but concentrated, while company results split between scalable growth and pressure on margins or capital.1–2 BSE, Lenskart and Emcure showed the clearest operating momentum: BSE revenue rose 34.1%, Lenskart EBITDA increased 50%, and Emcure beat Jefferies’ revenue, EBITDA and profit estimates by 7-10%.3–6 Reliance’s refining business offset an 11% fall in retail EBITDA, while ITC’s cigarette operating profit fell 27% and Asian Paints’ gross margin contracted 347 basis points.7–12 Yes Bank faced an assessed 240-basis-point reduction in CET1 capital after the AT1 judgment.13–14

Views strengthened for Emcure, where Jefferies raised FY27-FY29 EPS estimates by 3-4%, and for Lenskart, where Jefferies and CLSA lifted targets after margin gains; Nomura kept its ₹888 target unchanged.6,15–16 CLSA lowered Muthoot Finance’s target to ₹3,500 as delinquencies rose, while its stances on SBI and Asian Paints were unchanged.11–12,17–20 J.P. Morgan kept its stances on ITC and BSE unchanged, as did Goldman Sachs on Reliance.3–4,7–10 Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan began NSE coverage, both citing its dominant cash-equity franchise but using different valuation levels.21–24

Nomura found normalised profit across 134 companies rose 34%, led by oil and gas, power and metals.1–2 Infrastructure and pharmaceuticals also contributed, while consumer staples, automobiles and chemicals missed consensus.1–2 J.P. Morgan recorded a 3.5% downgrade to 2027 consensus earnings amid pressure from oil, the dollar and global rates.25 Goldman Sachs tied its fiscal assessment to spending reprioritisation after the deficit reached 42.6% of the full-year estimate, while Nomura estimated October equity-fund inflows fell 18% to ₹34,600 crore.26–29

What tied the week together

  • Exchange scale cuts both ways

    Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan linked NSE’s cash-equity dominance to operating strength, while J.P. Morgan also identified index-options premium share at 66% in September.21–24

  • Lenskart evidence aligned

    All three institutions cited 35.7-36% sales growth and better margins, but their targets ranged from ₹773 to ₹888.6,16

  • Aggregate growth hid dispersion

    Nomura’s 34% normalised profit growth was led by cyclical and regulated sectors, while consumer staples, automobiles and chemicals missed consensus.1–2

  • Domestic flow momentum softened

    October equity-fund inflows were estimated 18% lower month on month, as foreign selling moderated after $8.8 billion of outflows since 15 September.2,28–29

  • Banks showed contrasting constraints

    SBI’s domestic loans rose 17% with an 11-basis-point sequential margin gain; J.P. Morgan assessed Yes Bank’s AT1 ruling as reducing CET1 capital by 240 basis points.13,17–18

  • Cost recovery remained constrained

    Asian Paints’ pricing did not offset raw-material inflation, while ITC’s delayed cigarette price increases accompanied a 7-8% volume fall.7–8,11–12

What each institution published

The lead note from each house. All of their notes follow below.

Morgan Stanley1 noteNSENSE's market strength supports long-term capital-market growthNSE combines dominant liquidity with scalable infrastructure as household savings shift towards equities. Morgan Stanley expected revenue and normalised profit to grow 15% annually during FY27-FY29.21–22OverweightTarget ₹2,3152 NovRead the noteJ.P. Morgan5 notesIndian equitiesIndian equities face weaker earnings despite enduring industrial themesIndian equities faced weaker near-term earnings as oil, the dollar and global rates weighed on growth. J.P. Morgan retained a cautious stance while identifying manufacturing, defence and power infrastructure as enduring themes.25Neutral5 NovRead all notesGoldman Sachs2 notesIndia fiscal deficitIndia's spending flexibility supports its fiscal-deficit goalIndia could meet its FY27 fiscal-deficit goal by reallocating spending, with corporate-tax collections offsetting revenue pressure. Goldman Sachs identified energy prices, fertiliser subsidies and fuel-duty relief as the principal risks.26–272 NovRead all notesJefferies2 notesEmcure PharmaceuticalsEmcure’s international growth strengthened its earnings outlookEmcure Pharmaceuticals’ growth outlook strengthened after international sales exceeded expectations, domestic growth accelerated and management lifted its full-year revenue guidance.5,15BuyTarget ₹2,5004 NovRead all notesNomura3 notesIndia equity strategyIndia’s earnings strength remained concentrated across sectorsIndia’s aggregate quarterly earnings exceeded expectations, but the strength was concentrated and Nomura expected profit growth to slow sharply in the second half.1–22 NovRead all notesCLSA4 notesLenskartLenskart’s India volumes drove stronger profitabilityLenskart’s India business combined strong volume growth with better margins, while its ability to serve value and premium customers supported a broader competitive position.6,16OutperformTarget ₹7735 NovRead all notes

Every note, in detail

What each note found, what changed from the house's earlier view, and why it matters.

Morgan Stanley1 note this week

NSE

NSE's market strength supports long-term capital-market growth

Report of 2 Nov

Rating
Overweight
Target
₹2,315
  • NSE has dominant liquidity, scalable technology and strong operating economics.21–22
  • Revenue and normalised profit were expected to grow 15% annually during FY27-FY29.21–22
  • Index-options market share was expected to stabilise, while regulation and trading revenues remained risks.21–22

J.P. Morgan5 notes this week

Indian equities

Indian equities face weaker earnings despite enduring industrial themes

Report of 5 Nov

Rating
Neutral
  • Higher oil, a stronger dollar and global interest rates weighed on Indian equities.25
  • Consensus earnings for 2027 had been revised down by 3.5%.25
  • Electronics manufacturing, defence and power-grid investment remained important long-term themes.25

NSE

NSE's scale offsets recent index-options market-share erosion

Report of 2 Nov

Rating
Overweight
Target
₹2,130
  • NSE commanded 93% of cash equities and nearly all single-stock derivatives activity.23–24
  • Adjusted profit was expected to grow about 14% annually during FY27-FY29.24
  • Index-options premium share had fallen to 66% by September 2026.24

Yes Bank

Yes Bank's bond ruling weakened capital and earnings resilience

Report of 3 Nov

Rating
Underweight
Target
₹13.10was ₹21
  • The AT1 bond judgment could reduce FY27 profit by ₹1,820 crore.13–14
  • Common Equity Tier-1 capital could decline about 240 basis points to 11.4%.13
  • Future coupon payments could further constrain earnings and loan growth.13–14

ITC

ITC's non-cigarette businesses offset persistent tobacco pressure

Report of 3 Nov

Rating
Neutral
Target
₹310
  • Cigarette operating profit fell 27% as delayed price increases accompanied a 7-8% volume decline.7–8
  • FMCG growth benefited from premium products, digital brands and wider distribution.7–8
  • Paperboard recovery provided additional support to group earnings.7–8

BSE

BSE's derivatives growth lifted revenue and operating margins

Report of 5 Nov

Rating
Overweight
Target
₹3,960
  • Second-quarter revenue increased 34.1% year on year despite an 8.5% sequential decline.3–4
  • EBITDA rose 43% to ₹973 crore, lifting margin to 67.9%.3–4
  • Profit excluding CDSL's contribution increased 45.7% to ₹783 crore.4

Goldman Sachs2 notes this week

India fiscal deficit

India's spending flexibility supports its fiscal-deficit goal

Report of 2 Nov

  • The Centre could meet its FY27 fiscal-deficit goal through expenditure reprioritisation.26–27
  • Corporate-tax collections were offsetting weaker fuel revenue and higher spending pressures.26–27
  • Commodity prices could increase fertiliser subsidies and prompt additional fuel-duty relief.26–27

Reliance Industries

Reliance's refining strength offset weaker retail profitability

Report of 2 Nov

Rating
Buy
Target
₹1,840
  • Second-quarter EBITDA exceeded Goldman's estimate by 9%, led by oil-to-chemicals operations.9–10
  • Retail EBITDA fell 11% year on year as revenue growth slowed.10
  • Higher tanker freight could pressure third-quarter refining margins.9–10

Jefferies2 notes this week

Emcure Pharmaceuticals

Emcure’s international growth strengthened its earnings outlook

Report of 4 Nov

Rating
Buy
Target
₹2,500was ₹2,320
  • International markets drove a 7-10% revenue, EBITDA and profit beat against Jefferies’ estimates.5
  • Domestic growth accelerated to 12% year on year, while organic growth improved to 10%.5,15
  • European product expansion and new launches supported the international business.5,15

Lenskart

Lenskart’s customer expansion supported continued margin improvement

Report of 5 Nov

Rating
Buy
Target
₹780
  • Revenue grew 35.7% year on year, while EBITDA increased 50%.6,16
  • Affordable and premium formats are widening Lenskart’s customer base.6,16
  • Foreign-exchange pressure has not disrupted the company’s margin progression.6,16

Nomura3 notes this week

India equity strategy

India’s earnings strength remained concentrated across sectors

Report of 2 Nov

  • Normalised profit across 134 companies grew 34% year on year, beating consensus by 18%.1–2
  • Oil, gas, power, metals, infrastructure and pharmaceuticals led the earnings strength.1–2
  • Consumer staples, automobiles and chemicals recorded weaker results than consensus expected.1

Mutual-fund flows

Mutual-fund equity inflows slowed as mid-cap demand weakened

Report of 4 Nov

  • October equity inflows were estimated at ₹34,600 crore, down 18% from September.28–29
  • Large-and-mid-cap and small-cap funds remained the largest estimated contributors.28–29
  • Mid-cap and hybrid categories accounted for much of the monthly slowdown.28–29

Lenskart

Lenskart’s growth and margins remained supported by India volumes

Report of 5 Nov

Rating
Buy
Target
₹888
  • Revenue increased 35.7% year on year, with strong growth in India and international operations.6,16
  • India volume growth and operating leverage supported higher profitability.6,16

CLSA4 notes this week

Lenskart

Lenskart’s India volumes drove stronger profitability

Report of 5 Nov

Rating
Outperform
Target
₹773
  • Sales grew 36% year on year, broadly matching CLSA’s estimate.6,16
  • India volume growth reached 26.5%, while India EBITDA exceeded CLSA’s estimate by 12%.6,16
  • The company profitably served customers across value and premium price segments.6,16

State Bank of India

SBI’s margin improvement supported broad-based loan growth

Report of 4 Nov

Rating
Outperform
Target
₹1,325
  • Net interest income exceeded CLSA’s estimate by 2% after domestic margins improved sequentially.17–18
  • Domestic loans grew 17% year on year, while deposits increased 12%.17–18
  • Lower fees and treasury losses left pre-tax profit 3% below CLSA’s estimate.17–18

Asian Paints

Asian Paints’ input inflation overwhelmed price increases

Report of 30 Oct

Rating
Underperform
Target
₹1,925
  • Consolidated revenue grew 16.5% year on year, broadly matching expectations.11–12
  • Gross margin contracted 347 basis points because pricing did not fully offset input inflation.11–12
  • Competition limited the company’s ability to pass higher costs to customers.11–12

Muthoot Finance

Muthoot Finance’s income growth offset rising loan delinquencies

Report of 2 Nov

Rating
Outperform
Target
₹3,500
  • Quarterly profit exceeded CLSA’s estimate by 14%, supported by higher net interest income.19–20
  • Net interest income grew 23% sequentially as assets and lending yields increased.19–20
  • Loan delinquencies increased despite stronger income and customer additions.19

Where they agree and disagree

Subjects on which at least two institutions published this week.

NSE

Shared view: Both tied NSE’s earnings capacity to dominant cash-equity liquidity and scalable infrastructure.21–24

Morgan Stanley2 Nov

Set a ₹2,315 target, citing participation headroom and strong operating economics.21

J.P. Morgan2 Nov

Set a ₹2,130 target as index-options premium share fell to 66%.24

Why they differ: Different participation, market-share and valuation assumptions produced distinct targets despite a shared Overweight stance.21–24

Indian equities

Shared view: Both described Indian earnings as uneven and identified commodity or interest-rate pressure on corporate performance.1–2,25

J.P. Morgan5 Nov

Retained Neutral after 2027 consensus earnings were cut 3.5%.25

Nomura2 Nov

Found 34% normalised profit growth, concentrated in selected sectors.1

Why they differ: J.P. Morgan used consensus revisions, while Nomura assessed reported profits from 134 companies and their sector concentration.1–2,25

Lenskart

Shared view: All cited strong sales growth, India volumes and operating leverage as support for better profitability.6,16

Jefferies5 Nov

Raised its target to ₹780, citing customer expansion and seven margin levers.6

Nomura5 Nov

Kept its ₹888 target, stressing India volumes and operating leverage.6

CLSA5 Nov

Moved its target to ₹773 after India EBITDA beat its estimate by 12%.16

Why they differ: They emphasised different operating evidence and retained distinct valuation levels; Nomura specified no verified estimate change.6,16

Sources

Every numbered point above links here: the publisher, the article and its date.

  1. 1Moneycontrol: Nomura sees Nifty crossing 24,000 as earnings deliver and FII selling eases, 3 Nov 2026
  2. 2The Economic Times: Record-breaking FII selling may have peaked, says Nomura, 3 Nov 2026
  3. 3CNBC-TV18: BSE share price: What divided analysts see after Q2 results, 5 Nov 2026
  4. 4Moneycontrol: BSE shares jump nearly 4% after Q2 profit rises 45%, 5 Nov 2026
  5. 5Business Standard: Emcure Pharma surges 10%, stock hits new high on strong outlook, 4 Nov 2026
  6. 6Moneycontrol: Lenskart shares rally 6% after Q2 profit more than doubles; 5 brokerages bullish, 5 Nov 2026
  7. 7NDTV Profit: Stock Picks Today: ITC, Marico, Devyani International, Yes Bank, And More, 3 Nov 2026
  8. 8Moneycontrol: ITC shares flat after Q2 profit drops 20%; brokerages flag cigarette pressure, 3 Nov 2026
  9. 9CNBC-TV18: Reliance Industries shares jump after Q2 earnings beat, 2 Nov 2026
  10. 10Moneycontrol: Reliance Industries outlook on strong O2C earnings and steady Jio growth, 2 Nov 2026
  11. 11Moneycontrol: Q2 results impact: Brokerages see Asian Paints' margin under pressure in FY27, 30 Oct 2026
  12. 12CNBC-TV18: Asian Paints share price target cut by multiple analysts after Q2 results, 30 Oct 2026
  13. 13NDTV Profit: Yes Bank's AT-1 bond woes: JPMorgan cuts target price by 38%, 3 Nov 2026
  14. 14The Economic Times: JPMorgan cuts Yes Bank target after AT1 bond judgment, 3 Nov 2026
  15. 15NDTV Profit: Emcure Pharma Review: Jefferies, Kotak Maintain Buy, Raise Growth Estimates, 4 Nov 2026
  16. 16CNBC-TV18: Lenskart shares surge 6% after HSBC upgrade; check new revised price targets, 5 Nov 2026
  17. 17Moneycontrol: SBI share price outlook: Brokerages positive post Q2 results, 4 Nov 2026
  18. 18CNBC-TV18: SBI's highest share price target indicates an upside potential of over 40%, 4 Nov 2026
  19. 19CNBC-TV18: Muthoot Finance shares rise 2.5% after Q2 results, 2 Nov 2026
  20. 20Moneycontrol: Market updates: CLSA maintains Outperform on Muthoot Finance, 2 Nov 2026
  21. 21CNBC-TV18: NSE shares can rally 30%, Morgan Stanley says on India's capital market growth, 2 Nov 2026
  22. 22The Economic Times: Only 3.2% of working Indians trade stocks. Why Morgan Stanley likes NSE, 3 Nov 2026
  23. 23Moneycontrol: Wall Street brokers rush in with bullish calls on NSE, 2 Nov 2026
  24. 24NDTV Profit: Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan initiate coverage on NSE shares with Overweight ratings, 2 Nov 2026
  25. 25J.P. Morgan Private Bank: Finding opportunities in Asia equities amid the selloff, 5 Nov 2026
  26. 26Moneycontrol: India's fiscal deficit hits over 40% of annual target, yet Goldman sees goal intact, 2 Nov 2026
  27. 27The Economic Times: India likely to meet FY27 fiscal deficit target despite spending pressures, 2 Nov 2026
  28. 28Moneycontrol: Nomura flags 18% October dip in MF equity flows, 5 Nov 2026
  29. 29The Economic Times: Equity mutual fund inflows may drop 18% in October: Nomura, 5 Nov 2026
Could not be confirmed this week (27)
  • Morgan Stanley: Single-source mention: A 3 November equity-strategy note said energy, utilities and public-sector banks led second-quarter earnings beats.
  • Morgan Stanley: Single-source mention: A 5 November report described demographics, infrastructure and policy stability as long-term supports for India's global output share.
  • Morgan Stanley: Single-source mentions on 5 November covered Shadowfax, Delhivery, Lenskart, Lupin, Elevate Campuses, Aptus, Metropolis, Dabur, Nykaa, LIC Housing Finance and MCX.
  • J.P. Morgan: Single-source mentions on 3 November covered Marico, Devyani International, Escorts Kubota, Amara Raja and Container Corporation.
  • J.P. Morgan: Single-source mentions on 5 November covered Delhivery and Muthoot Finance.
  • Goldman Sachs: The 30 October India Weekly Kickstart market-strategy note lacked two independently reported qualifying sources.
  • Goldman Sachs: Single-source mentions on 30 October covered Asian Paints and Laurus Labs.
  • Goldman Sachs: Single-source mentions on 3 November covered ITC, Marico, Devyani International, Gabriel India and Garden Reach Shipbuilders.
  • Goldman Sachs: Single-source mentions on 4 November covered Neuland Laboratories and Bajaj Finserv.
  • Goldman Sachs: Single-source mentions on 5 November covered Solar Industries and Dabur.
  • Jefferies: Single-source: India Q2 earnings strategy, reported on 30 October; the underlying report date was not established.
  • Jefferies: Single-source: Indian banks’ annual-report review, reported on 3-4 November; the underlying report date was not established.
  • Jefferies: Single-source: NSE target revision to ₹2,125, reported on 4 November.
  • Jefferies: Single-source: smartphone memory-cost view, reported on 5 November; the underlying report date was not established.
  • Jefferies: Single-source: Indian aviation and West Asia de-escalation view, reported on 5 November.
  • Jefferies: Single-source: October automobile-sales estimates, reported on 30 October; the underlying report date may precede coverage.
  • Nomura: Single-source: Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles report dated 4 November, with a maintained ₹511 target.
  • Nomura: Single-source: Petronet LNG report dated 4 November, raising the target to ₹355.
  • Nomura: Single-source: Hero MotoCorp review reported on 30 October, lowering the target to ₹5,803.
  • Nomura: Single-source: NBFC sector view reported on 30 October, covering weather, inflation, rates and regulation.
  • Nomura: Single-source: Sun Pharma review reported on 2 November, lowering the target to ₹2,260.
  • Nomura: Single-source: automobile-sector view reported on 2 November; the underlying report date was not established.
  • Nomura: Single-source: Lodha Developers review reported on 3 November; the underlying report date was not established.
  • CLSA: Single-source: Max Healthcare review reported on 4 November, reiterating a ₹1,160 target.
  • CLSA: Single-source: ITC review reported on 3 November, reiterating a ₹390 target.
  • CLSA: Single-source: LIC Housing Finance review reported on 3 November, with a ₹620 target.
  • CLSA: Single-source: Nykaa review reported on 5 November, raising the target to ₹409.

Earlier weeks

The last 26 weeks.

October 2026

Week of 23–29 Oct 2026Quarterly results reset company views while policy questions remained openRead this week →